“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” as George Santayana said. Even though it was a different time back then, upon careful reflection, many parallels emerge between the current US/China conflict and that era. We cannot afford to ignore them.
Parallels in the situation:
Threat
Back then, communism was an effective threat, as was the risk of nuclear war between the two superpowers. This was an important trigger for America’s willingness to negotiate. The Soviet Union was on the rise, and a renewed rapprochement between China and the Soviet Union could have given history a completely different spin.
Today, the sword of Damocles of war hangs over us again, this time a war directly between China and the United States. Although the probability of such an event, which would sweep the whole world along with it, can be considered low, even the smallest probability is not acceptable due to the devastating effects. Neither China nor the United States want war today. Although the hatchet will not be intentionally dug up, an unintentional slide into a global hot conflict is still possible. Here, reference should be made to the events that led to the First World War. Therefore, a threat exists again, but this time not from a third party. It still needs to be averted, and once again, an agreement is needed. It is even more important than before that a new agreement is better in the worst-case scenario than the devastating alternative, even if both sides have to swallow some bitter pills.
Taiwan crisis
Both then and now, it is essential for the PRC, the People’s Republic of China, that there is only one China, and Taiwan is an integral part of it. No Chinese leader will ever deviate from this. Once again, it is the Taiwan issue that is causing tensions and could ignite the powder keg. A solution is urgently needed. It is not easy to find one, but it is easier for the United States than it was in 1972. They remained loyal to the Republic of China, or Taiwan and Chiang Kai-shek, for 30 years, but due to circumstances, they dropped Taiwan like a hot potato.
Ideology and values
Back then, the two parties were miles apart in all aspects, especially due to almost 25 years without direct contact. Today, ideology, as well as nationalism in relation to economic goals, has regained momentum. However, economic success remains the measure of all things.
Trust
At Nixon’s time, trust between the two countries was completely destroyed or nonexistent. Nevertheless, the two parties were able to overcome their differences and conclude an agreement. With Trump/Biden America, the trust relationship is strongly damaged. It is also important to understand that the events of the last four years cannot simply be undone by some meetings and talking. However, setting up measurable rules that both sides can accept is absolutely realistic and easier to accomplish. Accordingly, it should not take four years, as was the case with the Shanghai Communique.
In my next and final blog post in this series,”The Week that Changed the World VI/VI” I will discuss approaches to resolving the current tensions based on the experiences of 1972.
Other blog posts in this series:
“The Week that Changed the World I/VI“
“The Week that Changed the World II/VI.“
“The Week that Changed the World III/VI“
“The Week that Changed the World IV/VI“
Below you can find my English YouTube video on the week that changed the world: